How to buy a house in a “Seller’s market”

images 150x150 How to buy a house in a Sellers market

Sellers Market

Many think they know how to bid on a home for sale since they have done it before.  We seem to think our past experiences can be used for all scenarios even if it was 5-10-30 years ago.  But it’s different than fixing a flat tire or painting a room.  Its a completely different animal that most of us do not understand.  Let me rephrase that.  Only people that study the market or are in the trenches actually see the conditions as they have changed over the past 6 months.  Even an active investor has noticed the change in market conditions as those models from 6 months ago no longer work for flipping.   It is called “Darwinism“.  Survival of the fittest.  Adapt or become the past.  You cannot win in this market without knowing all the details of how to purchase a home in a sellers market.

This brings me to next next point of pricing.  We are human beings that are trained to think that we need to negotiate in order to get the best deal.  We were raised to believe that we need to pay the least amount of money for an item in order to purchase it.  Now some may be more aggressive than others.  For example, I do not look at gas prices ever.  I buy gas when I need it, and whatever it costs is what I pay.  Some will drive miles to save 3 cents not realizing those extra miles driven exceeded the cost savings in gasoline.  So the ends must justify the means to make sense.

 Well, that applies to houses as well.  Who wants to pay full price for anything right?  If something costs $100, we want it for $90.  That would make us feel as though we obtained value in our purchase.  If a house is listed at $100,000 then we would like to steal it at $80,000 right? No… The key word was listed.  I can list a home valued at $100,000 for $120,000.  So if you offered $100,000 on a listing of $120,000 you feel you got a deal.  Even if its worth what you payed for it?  What you pay for it is actually the definition of market value.  When a listing is priced below market value, that is looked at as more of a floor price or starting price.  Similar to an auction floor price. The problem buyers have is they do not know what the house is worth when they look at a listing.  Due to the distressed properties on the market, they are unable to determine true value any longer.  I see agents overpricing properties as well as under pricing them depending on that agents marketing approach.

 There are many different variables changing at the same time which confuses anybody that is not in industry (even some that are actually, lol) An overpriced property will be on the market for more than 30 days.  When I do comparables I always know who is underpriced and who is overpriced based on days on market. An under priced property will have multiple offers and be gone in less than 7.  This is a sellers market for a reason.  The supply of inventory is low, rates are low, and there are more buyers than sellers.

So if you really want to purchase a distressed home in this market, you will have to follow a few steps to get there as traditional purchasing in AZ has changed drastically, even more so in the past 6 months.

These steps should assist you with at least competing for a home for sale vs complaining that you have lost 4 offers even with offering full listing price.

1) Do not look at list price.  Ask your agent for a CMA or BPO of the property you are interested in.  Comparables are factual date and will assist you with determining what to offer.

2) Understand that the discount on the property already exists.  You do not need to low ball or even try to get a lower price.  The value of the property will be determined from the comps.  Since there is a shortage of homes on market, your offer will probably be one of a few offers on that property.  If you want to win that battle you must be the highest and best offer.  Forget the negotiating part, just try to play the game and get the house.  As long as the home appraises you are not overpaying.  What a buyer is willing to spend is what the home is worth, as long as the price is supported by comparable’s.

3) Trust your agent as they should posses the information and skills to assist you get a home.  A good agent will review the values with you prior to placing an offer.  If you really want to win the bidding war, offer close to the highest comparable in CMA/BPO report.  This will at least catch the listing agents attention that you are aware of market value.

4) Do not add too many contingencies as that makes banks and negotiators look the other way.  That doesn’t mean you cannot ask for seller paid concessions.  It just means they may not like a home warranty, or if an FHA loan requiring the bank to pay repairs.  Not only will they most like not agree to those items, but they can even pick another offer over yours.

This may sound a bit harsh, but a sellers market means the seller has the upper hand.  In many cases, the seller is the bank.  The bank does not care about why you are buying the house or who is going to live it in.  They are a business and are looking for the best possible buyer to purchase their short sale/Foreclosure.

39204 N Acadia Way Anthem AZ 85086

Great upgraded one story home in Anthem

Enjoy this gently lived in highly upgraded Pulte home in Anthem AZ.  Home offers Granite tiled countertops, extensive upgraded ceramic tiled floors and natural maple cabinets.  Home was professionally  painted with two tone paint. Beautiful mountain views from front and rear of home.  Home offers spacious open floor plan with seperate dining and living rooms.  Home has a den as well as an eat in kitchen.  Home is great for entertaining.   Short sale approval required.

3632 W Kesler Lane Chandler, AZ. 85226

Location, Location, Location…Less than 1 mile from major shopping (Chandler Fashion Center) and from 2 major freeways 101 fwy and the 202 fwy.  This home offers a very open and flowing layout with 4 bedroom, 2 bathrooms, and cathedral ceilings.  Travertine flooring in kitchen, family room, and dining room.   Corian countertops in kitchen.   Updated fixtures.  The master bedroom has  french doors that opens to backyard.  Oversized lot has a private pool, grass, and a large side lot.  Long extended covered patio for outside entertaining.    Hot tub does not convey.  Short sale approval required.

 

To buy…or not to buy?

best time2 To buy...or not to buy?Its kind of like asking when the stock market has bottomed out. You won’t know it has until it goes back up. 

So how do people who study the market, investors, and economists figure out the true market conditions of a given market? Are they guessing? or just using the past as a benchmark of where the market will be? If anyone truly knew the answer they would probably be sipping on daiquiri from their private island. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoyed Limitless very much and wish I could get a hold of a drug like that, but its a myth.  We cannot see the future, nor can we know when the best time to buy is.  That will be known once the best time to buy actually passes and we are looking in the rear view mirror at it.  At that time we will know that point A was the best time to buy.

Everybody has their own opinion of the matter and as a Realtor I can tell you my thoughts.  I believe the market will continue to decline in value over the next few years.  I think that unemployment and inventory will affect home values as it has in the recent past.  Although recent indicators have shown inventory decreasing making it a sellers market , I believe that is caused from the Shadow Inventory from banks not placing their distressed assets (Liabilities in reality)on the market.  This will eventually cause prices to stop declining and begin to plateau or increase.  The issue is what happens to interest rates in the near future?  Are they going to stay put or go up since we are at the lowest rates have been in history or banks lending for real estate. We are going to assume that they won’t go any lower since they are already at the floor.   If rates go up it can increase you monthly payment.  And if you wait for home values to keep declining you may end up having a higher interest rate.  But wait, this may cost you more than if you purchased the home a year prior when values were a bit higher?   How is that possible?  Do buyers have to actually try to middle the two evils?  How can it not be the best time to buy?   Well, according to history using affordability index of home ownership it is the best time to buy.   This breaks down the market using interest rates per year as well as home values per year.  Right now is the best combination of the two in history.  Meaning this is the most affordable it has ever been to buy a home.  The key is the combination of low rates and low pricing on current inventory.  This has never occurred in the past which is why you keep hearing best time to buy.  So our conclusion on the topic is that it is a good time to buy. Unfortunately, it is impossible to make an assumption of the future with so many variables and factors changing.

We can use the past to prevent issues in the future.  We saw interest rates in the high teens in the 80′s to prevent inflation which created many problems for buyers as they were priced out of the market.  We can see home prices increase to create the same issue.  But in 2011 as we stand now, based on the affordability index, it is the best time to buy.prces down To buy...or not to buy?

What is a reverse annuity mortgage and how does it work?

Reverse annuity mortgage or the reverse mortgage is a type of home loan where unlike other mortgages, it is the lender who goes on making the payments instead of the borrower. Just as the name suggests the lender pays the money to the borrower till he/she stays in the home against which the reverse mortgage is going to be taken. In case of these mortgages, there isn’t the fear of defaulting on the home loan. But, still it is always better for you to know “mortgage how much can I borrow” or to check with the affordability.

Things to know about the mortgage

The reverse annuity mortgages are in general available based on various matters like the amount available is for almost one third of the home value. The other things on which the reverse annuity mortgage depends are the age, the marital status of the person who is going to borrow, and in addition to this also the current interest rates of mortgages in the market. The proceeds can then be taken either in the form of a lump sum, or as the guaranteed monthly payments, or may also be taken as the combination of the previous two.

However, what you need to understand in regards to the reverse mortgages is that the reverse annuity mortgages are not much different than the conventional mortgages, and the only difference is that these are the reverse of the previous type. In case of the majority of the reverse annuity mortgages, the principal that is being borrowed as a part of the reverse mortgage loan along with the interest that accumulates isn’t considered to be due till the death of the home owner or may be till the homeowner sells off the home against which he had taken the mortgage. Though there is no such requirement for you to make the monthly payments, but still there is another option for you to pay out on the mortgage at much earlier a date.

Another great advantage of the reverse mortgages is that though you are required to pay taxes on the payments that you are bake to receive under the reverse mortgages, the interest which accumulates against the mortgage is tax deductible. This as a result offsets the total tax payable under this kind of mortgage.

However, the reverse annuity mortgages are available mainly of those above the age of 62. Another thing that you need to know is that if you take out a reverse mortgage against your home, it results in the elimination of any and all of the equity that had built up against your home.

Short sale trends

a earnest money 150x150 Short sale trendsMore and more listing agents are realizing that there are some buyers out there that are not as loyal as we once thought they were, especially in a seller’s market.

 

 

What we are beginning to witness is buyer’s putting multiple offers on short sale listings and buying the first one that responds.  This is becoming an issue for all parties as that is not the way to do business, nor is something any buyers agent should agree to as it undermines our ethics and process.

What listing agents have recently started doing to counter this issue to make the buyers Earnest Money Deposit hard for the first 60-90 days.  What this means is if the buyer backs out prior to the 60 or 90th day, the buyer forfeits their deposit.  What the buyers have done to counter this is to place lower EMD (Earnest money deposits) in their offer.  This hurts both sides as the EMD shows how serious the buyer is to purchase the property.

cancel 150x150 Short sale trends It hurts the seller because a traditional buyer may not agree to have their money tied up as hard money for 90 days.  What if that person no longer wants the house or has something happen where they do not want to buy any houses?  They should not be penalized due to unfaithful buyers that run around putting 3-4 offers in and waiting for the first response.  This is the one bad apple rule that will eventually ruin the bunch.

Personally, I agree with the hard money model as I get frustrated as a listing agent when a buyer walks (30% of short sales) and I have to restart the whole process again.  Some banks do not continue from that point and require the full file to be resubmitted.  But lets just say it does continue from that point, the 2nd buyer gets the benefit of not having to wait months and months since the process is already close to the middle or end.  Regardless, the  EMD issue is going the wrong way.  I believe that it is the buyer agents job to make sure the buyer does not place multiple offers.  If explained properly, the buyer would not want to risk their EMD or place a low EMD due to fear of losing their deposit.  My buyers are all serious so this issue does not exist for me.  I do not represent a buyer unless they are serious, so a EMD that is higher and hard does not matter as we are willing to wait regardless.  I just hope this issue doesn’t pour into the normal deals which can affect the whole process one day.

The moral of my story is to choose a house you like, put a reasonable EMD to show the seller/banks how serious you are, and wait like everyone else does until you get a response.  The process for short sales is still 3-6 months so there is no surprise of the length of time it takes.   Good things come to those who wait.  Happy house hunting.

Short Sale 21 150x150 Short sale trends

 

Sellers market with a buyers market mentality?

images1 Sellers market with a buyers market mentality?Yup, there is still confusion among buyers.  Many still believe its a buyers market due to market conditions and declining values on the news and on TV.  The idea of low balling a listing or purchasing a property well below market value was great….. 2 years ago. Times have changed, and only the agents/buyers/sellers that are in the trenches can comprehend this.  Seeing is believing and not all can see.  Once you put in offers and lose them a few times my point will become crystal clear.  Its easy to think you are correct.  Its different when you try and fail.
Basic economics is based on supply and demand, which many of us learned in high school and college(of course that is if you made it to class that day).  It’s pretty boring unless you enjoy that kind of stuff, so I will keep it very simple. Limited supply = increasing values, low demand=decreasing values. The less you have of something, the more its wanted, the higher its value goes. Pretty simple concept and basically the way many economies work.  Problem is, prices have been dropping and have dropped over 50% the past 3 years.  This makes us believe we are still in a buyers market due to the indicator , in this case was price. The problem was, and still is, that the immediate shortage of homes has drastically turned the market into a sellers market. Anything less than 4 months of inventory is considered a sellers market. We are currently at 2.2 months of inventory based on the statistics. There are not enough homes for the current amount of buyers. But this has occurred after values have dropped which is a bit confusing.  If prices are dropping then its a buyers market right? Not this time.  The supply has shifted to a shortage of inventory. A shortage will create a higher value for the home. The fact it has happened so quick is what is confusing the average buyers looking for a deal/home. Most agents and buyers that have been in the trench’s will tell you homes are going for list price and sometimes over list price. Of course many homes are priced below market value to obtain a quick offer on the short sale/distressed property.  So list price is not a true indicator of value all the time. Many feel their offer needs to be below asking price.  This is due to our thought process that paying at or above what someone wants is not smart.  If a house if worth $100,000 the buyer wants it for $90,000. If that same house is listed at $85,000 and the buyer knows its worth $100,000 they will still want to offer less than asking, meaning below the $85,000.  Market value is what somebody is willing to pay for a home. You have to ignore the list price.  I can list one of my listings at $50,000 even though I know its worth $100,000.  That doesn’t mean that will be the sale price.  You have to ask your agent what is the value of this property.  The banks in any transaction will hire a 3rd party real estate agent to give them the value of the property also known as a BPO.  This is what the banks use as their benchmark for value and have a variance from that figure to work with.  Therefore, an overpriced or under priced listing will hopefully be corrected by the BPO.  Its like a check and balance for the value of the home.  You cannot over pay for a home in this market as long as you are obtaining a loan.  You can in a cash offer since there is no appraisal or BPO required since there is not a lender.   Your lender will not loan you above what the home is worth protecting you from overpaying.  If the BPO comes back above the offer price/list price, then the back will most likely counter (within a certain range) the buyer to that amount.  So all a buyer really has to do is ask their agent for a CMA.  You want to know what the 3 most similar sold and active comparables, within 1 mile of the property, sold for.  This is roughly what the BPO will come back at, which is what the banks will want for the home.  Do not try to out think the process.  You will not steal a home from the bank.

Buyers need to just concentrate on which home they want, and leave the negotiating and offers to their agents as that is the reason you hired us in the first place. From my experience properly priced homes sell within 21 days on market.  If its over 30 days on market it’s probably overpriced or in fair to poor condition.  If its under priced it usually sells in days.   This is a common tactic in this market as agents need to present the banks with an offer to obtain a response.  Over pricing a listing is worse than under pricing as you will not get any action.  Under pricing a listing usually pisses off the buyer and bank which is also not good.  Regardless, buyers need to understand that this is historically one of the best time to buy a home based on rates and affordability index.  Homes are already priced at their discounted rates.  Most deals

As the market dries up and inventory levels drop buyers will begin to realize that it has changed and is a sellers market as it once was in the past.  We just have to understand it and react accordingly.  Darwinism for buyers is in effect.offer 150x150 Sellers market with a buyers market mentality?

Inventory Levels dropping in and around Gilbert, AZ.

As I reviewed some market data in the MLS  I realized today that we are definitely in a sellers market.  A sellers market is when the inventory level drops below 4 months.  We are currently at 3.22 according to this data Iwas reading.  Its a sellers market even though values have plummeted over 40% in the past few years.   If supply is limited values increase.  That is the basic supply and demand rule.  There are more buyers than sellers for the first time in many years.  This is a natural correction that needed to take place to balance.  With interest rates being at record lows and home prices nearing a bottoming out stage due to limited homes on market.   This may be a good time to consider Purchasing a home rather than renting.  Rental rates are increasing at a fast rate due to a transition of homeowners losing or being forced to short sale their homes and move into rentals.  Again, supply and demand will dictate this as well as a shortage of rentals causes a sharp increase in rents.   I see the balance shifting and values plateauing  so it is a time of uncertainty.   My opinion is the market will come to a stagnant plateau for a while so demand can build up and meet supply as more homes enter the market.  This will stabilize the market values for now, but I don’t see an appreciation for at least the next 3-5 years.  We all need a home to live in, unfortunately we are all renting regardless if we own or not.

 

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Survey Shows: Buying Still Better Than Renting

Survey Shows: Buying Still Better Than Renting By: Alyse Rzemek

With mortgage rates at and all time low and the recent home price index showing home prices down morepeople are renting over buying, but they still believe in the concept of the American Dream. More than twothirds of the American people say they have achieved the American Dream by purchasing a home or will doso in the near future, according to the Pew Research Center.Two recent reports by Trulia and the Pew Research Center revealed that naturally not only do consumersprefer to buy, but maintain that buying is more cost effective than renting in 78 percent of the nation’s cities.The Pew data shows the rate of home ownership is back to the level it was in 1998, pretty much wiping outthe past housing boom.Some economists are expecting housing levels to fall even lower this year to the levels of the 80’s or earlier.The ability for Americans to own a home has never been greater, reaching its highest level in the more than20 years, according to National Association of Home Builders data. “While this is good news for consumers,home buyers and builders continue to confront extremely tight credit conditions, and this remains asignificant obstacle to many potential home sales,” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association ofHome Builders.According to a survey from real estate websites Trulia and RealtyTrac, 54 percent of Americans said theythought the real estate market would recover in 2014 or later. That’s up from about one-third who gave thesame answer when the same poll was given last November.Last year, 66.4 percent of Americans owned a home, down from a peak of about 69 percent in 2004. Theseare not the only numbers leaving the housing outlook pretty bleak. Housing prices have fallen eight months inrow to 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2011. This is all according to the Standard and Poor’s Case ShillerHome Price Index, considered one of the best indicators of the housing situation in the country. Anotherindicator that buyers are losing confidence in the housing market and lenders are losing loans due to stricterguidelines, which leaves them unable to help a potential home buyer, making the American Dream of owninga home and even bigger feat.©2011 The MReport. All Rights Reserve

Should I speak to a lender before I begin shopping for a home?

You really should speak to a lender before you begin shopping for a home

The question many buyers ask themselves after they begin their search.  It is very common for first time buyers to begin looking for a home without contacting a lender first.  The reasoning behind this is the idea that you need a house first in order to get a loan.  This couldn’t be further from the truth.  I always educate buyers about the process and the correct way to proceed with purchasing a home.  The correct way to the home buying process is obtaining a  pre-qualification from a lender.  This informs the buyer in writing of their : approval amount, interest rate, payment, and other details regarding the loan.  The pre-qualification is also valid with that lender for 90 days.    So the answer is yes you should speak to a lender before shopping for a home.  You do not want to find a home that is out of your price range.  You do not want to find the perfect home that you cannot qualify for.  Also, with the way the market is currently, you need to be prepared to submit an offer immediately after you find the home you want.   If you do not have your pre-qualification completed,  you may be waiting a few days for the approval after finding the home.  This can cause you to lose the home due to not being prepared to purchase the home you want.   You want to have a piece of mind that the homes you are looking at are homes you can purchase.  Contact a lender prior to beginning your search for a home.

picture of bank 150x150 Should I speak to a lender before I begin shopping for a home?

Contact a lender